The US can overtake Russia in terms of oil exports in less than three years. By September 2020, foreign supplies of the US oil could reach 5 million barrels per day, and by the end of the year to exceed this mark, while Russian exports during this period will remain at this level. This forecast is given in the study of the international consulting company IHS Markit.
At the same time, in general, the export of liquid hydrocarbons from the United States, including oil, oil products and gas condensate, by the end of 2019 may exceed 10 million barrels per day, which will deprive Saudi Arabia of the status of the largest oil exporter in the world, according to IHS forecasts. According to analysts ‘ calculations, Saudi exports will remain at the level of 9 million barrels per day during this period.
Russia, the USA and Saudi Arabia are among the three largest oil producers in the world. According to the International energy agency, they account for 40% of the world’s production. However, if in terms of the US production and catch up with other leaders, in the field of exports, they have long remained an outsider, as still consumed more oil than produced. But in November of this year, the United States for the first time since the 90s became a net exporter of oil.
According to IHS, annual revenues from oil sales in Russia, the USA and Saudi Arabia reach about 280 billion dollars at everyone. However, in the structure of GDP occupy a completely different share. Thus, the US oil revenues occupy only 1% of the gross product, Russia-19%, and Saudi Arabia — 35%.
However, according to IHS, Russia under ideal economic conditions and without participation in the restrictive OPEC+ policy has the potential to increase production by 0.5 million barrels per day — up to 12 million barrels per day by 2025. As of December, IHS estimated oil production in Russia at about 11.5 million barrels per day.
According to IHS, the economy of Russian oil production projects remains “extremely attractive” and stimulates investment in both mature and new fields.