The British House of Commons on Tuesday should take a decision that could serve as a trigger for the most powerful political storm in the country’s recent political history.
The majority in the House of Commons is against the withdrawal agreement agreed by the British government and Brussels. After the Parliament refused to ratify the Treaty, any possible developments, including extreme and while theoretical versions of “landslide” exit without normalization or cancel “Brexit”.
Any of the options will be of great importance not only for the British economy and politics, but also for the whole of Europe.
At the same time, none of the possible alternatives is currently gaining a parliamentary majority, which makes the growing crisis particularly difficult and unpredictable.
As of now, Britain should formally withdraw from the EU on March 29. What could happen between Tuesday night and this date? British politicians and the press are discussing the following options.
Important note: both the government and its opponents in the House of Commons have procedural and legislative opportunities to get away from the decisive battle in the form of a single vote on the draft Treaty, stretching the solution of the issue in time and smearing it on several different bills. If they resort to these opportunities, it will make the process less spectacular, but will not solve the main problem: so far no one has proposed an option of behavior towards the EU, which would definitely support the majority in Parliament.
By default, if within two and a half months the British political elite will not be able to solve anything then on March 29 Britain will leave the EU without settled relations.
The most tough-minded opponents of the EU, including former foreign Minister Boris Johnson, say that such a shake-up will not be a disaster and will ultimately benefit the British economy.
But against the “collapse Brexit” – the majority in the House of Commons: deputies from different parties agree that it will be too heavy a blow to the British economy (and a sensitive blow to the economy of the rest of the EU).
On Monday evening, Theresa may in the House of Commons asked directly whether she was ready to postpone the exit to exclude the possibility of withdrawal without a contract if the House of Commons voted against the proposed version of the contract. The Prime Minister declined to respond.
In General, the probability of a “landslide” exit is still considered to be low. All other options involve postponing exit from the EU.