An international team of researchers predicted changes in the state of the Arctic Ocean under climate influence. It will stop being covered with ice in September after 35 years.
“We were able to simulate the effects of climate change under various scenarios of rising greenhouse gas levels on the Arctic Ocean ecosystem. Factors such as a decrease in the ice cover area, changes in temperature, and salinity of the water were taken into account. According to the calculations based on one of the mathematical models used, the Arctic Ocean will reach an ice-free state in September by 2055. At the same time, by the end of the XXI century, the period of the year when the ocean will be completely free of ice will gradually increase and will reach four months by 2100 — from mid — July to mid-November,” the scientist said.
The authors also predict a decrease in the concentration of nutrients in the North Atlantic in winter by the end of the century, caused by a lower intensity of mixing of the layers of ocean water. Scientists also did not rule out that some floods may occur in the second half of the century due to the increase in the Pechora Sea level. Simultaneously, according to calculations, the frequency of hot winters will increase in the coming decades in the Baltic Sea region.
“Previously, such studies of climate change on a regional scale were limited: the presence of open sea borders created inconsistencies in boundary conditions and atmospheric influences for regional models. This work allowed us to use the same climate model, which was used later in regional ocean models. This significantly increases the correctness of the task and its solution,” the researcher explained.