Scientists from the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Oslo, Norway performed a series of calculations and created a model of global changes in global warming. They found evidence that it could take decades to cool the planet after reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In their article in the journal Nature Communications, researchers describe the factors that went into the model and its results.
The planet continues to heat up due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Therefore, scientists continue to try to predict how the planet will react. In this new work, researchers wondered what could happen if people made serious efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Work included the use of several climate models to determine how the planet will respond to different levels of emission reductions, as well as to reduce different types of emissions.
Researchers have found that only a reduction in carbon dioxide will reverse the current global warming trend – and it will take a long time.
But reducing emissions and other gases is also important. Without such steps, the planet would have taken much longer to cool.
Scientists have programmed the model to present stringent emission limits (near zero) starting this year. These conditions do not seem realistic, and under such conditions, the model showed that until 2033 the planet will begin to respond positively. When they programmed the model for a world reaching RUCP2.6 (the climate scenario, which many in this area believe is an achievable reduction in emissions) this year, there were no positive changes until 2047. If emissions are reduced by 5 percent each year, we will see some results by 2044.
Researchers acknowledge that the results presented by their model cannot be used as a predictor of real events, although they suggest that it gives an idea of what humanity is facing. In addition, it shows very convincingly that time is of the essence. The longer we wait to dramatically reduce emissions, the longer it will take to recover from the damage.