According to researchers at the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington Medical School in Seattle, population growth will peak in 2064 to reach 9.7 billion, and by 2100 the world’s population will drop to 8.8 billion, which is 2 billion less than UN forecasts, reports The Lancet.
The authors of the study predict that the peak of the world’s population will occur in 2064 when there will be approximately 9.73 billion people on the planet. Then a gradual decline will begin, which will be permanent.
As a result, in 2100, there will be about 8.79 billion people on Earth. Now around 7.59 billion people live in the world.
Scientists have explained that by this time the birth rate will decrease, which will be associated with the widespread availability of contraceptives, as well as with an increase in the level of education of women.
According to the authors, as a result of the changes, the overall increase in the birth rate will drop to 1.7 children per woman, which is not enough even to “replace” the parents after their death. However, in some countries, such as Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, the birth rate will remain at a level higher than 2.0.
The first five countries with the largest population by 2100 will be India, Nigeria, China, the USA, and Pakistan. In more than 20 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy, and Spain, by 2100 the population will decrease by more than 50%. China’s population will also decline by 48%.