The simulation showed 3.3 million infected with COVID-19 in Italy – just as many, according to mathematicians, the real cases are located in the country. This is stated in a study by scientists from the University of Campania, published in the journal medRxiv.
The main strangeness of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy is the extremely high mortality rate: while in the whole world the average mortality rate does not exceed 1–2.5%, in Italy every ninth person dies from a new type of coronavirus.
Researchers have suggested: the reason for this is that there are actually many more cases than official statistics say. To test this hypothesis, they built a computer model in which, as input data, they used information on the number of sick and dead in Italy, Germany and on the Diamond Princess liner.
Modeling showed that in the country according to March 25, there should be not 74 thousand patients with COVID-19, but from 140 thousand to 3.3 million people.
“The data on mortality from the Diamond Princess ship is interesting in that it is absolutely accurate – in this case, cases of the latent spread of infection are excluded. Using them and different estimates of the mortality rate of COVID-19, we showed that the number of infected people in Italy is several times higher than the current official data”.
Giuseppe De Natalie, lead author of the study