Mathematical models will help mitigate the impact of the pandemic

Scientists from Innopolis will develop models – using their data, you can make decisions to fight the pandemic. Researchers have already received a research grant. The press service of the Innopolis University reports.

The researchers will study models and methods of ensuring “the stability of socio-technical systems in a pandemic based on acquired immunity.” Five researchers of the Information Security Center under the leadership of Sergey Petrenko will concentrate on the work.

According to the experts of the center, the real dynamics of the spread and counteraction to the virus (quantitative patterns of counteraction and return of society to a normal state) still remain unknown and require additional scientific research. The reason for this is the imperfection of known models that take into account random factors and methods for studying complex epidemiological processes, the transience and uncertainty of observation parameters, the rate of mutation of the coronavirus, the lack of a scientifically based evidence base, etc. Based on the results of a two-year study, specialists will receive mathematical models that prevent the transfer of socio irreversible and catastrophic conditions.

“Irreversible and catastrophic conditions can be typical scenarios of films about the apocalypse – death of people, degradation of key systems of life. And in order to prevent this, many different specialists are now working: doctors are saving people, virologists and epidemiologists are fighting the pandemic, mathematicians and programmers are developing models and appropriate software on which possible scenarios for the development of the situation, losses, and harm to society as a whole can be played. Based on the forecasts received, supported by calculations and statistics, you can make the right decisions to counter the COVID-19 pandemic. This is what our team is working on: we are developing mathematical models that will allow the government to develop a number of practical recommendations for effectively countering such viral epidemics”.

Head of the Information Security Center of Innopolis University Sergey Petrenko

According to Sergei Petrenko, this topic is now especially popular in scientific circles. Researchers from the EU and the Hopkins Center for Systems Research in the United States are doing similar research. Even in the Russian competition, which was won by experts from the University of Innopolis, 561 applications were submitted. “The organizers noted that there was a full house and tough competition,” the expert added.

Earlier, researchers from China reported on the successful second phase of trials of the coronavirus vaccine. She helped 603 volunteers, all of whom have an immune response.