The number of deaths due to the coronavirus in the world may be more than twice as high as follows from the available official data. Scientists made this conclusion from the American Institute for Health Indicators and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle. The results of the study are published on the institute’s website on Thursday.
Experts point out that, according to their estimates, about 6.9 million people worldwide could have died from the coronavirus disease, while calculations based on available data on the causes of death give a figure of about 3.2 million.
The model used by specialists is based on the analysis of data on excess mortality. The researchers compared country-by-country deaths in previous years with the number of deaths resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. Several adjustments were made to take into account the increase in the death rate due to non-coronavirus-related causes: for example, due to extremely hot weather in Europe in the summer of 2020. Scientists also took into account that the pandemic could have saved lives by reducing traffic density and the number of fatal accidents. As the researchers point out, the discrepancy in the figures is most often explained by the fact that in some cases, before death, testing for coronavirus was not carried out, which would make it possible to link the cause of death to it. Such cases were particularly common in the early stages of the pandemic. The calculations of American researchers remain a mathematical model that cannot be confirmed by other means.