Up to 1.7 million people can die in the United States from a new type of coronavirus, the New York Times reports citing experts.
According to the publication, last month, employees of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and experts on epidemic diseases from various universities held a conference to discuss the possible consequences of a new type of coronavirus for the United States. They modeled several options for the development of events, based on the characteristics of the virus, the pace of its spread and how seriously the disease caused by it will proceed. Then, about 50 expert groups reviewed their findings and built models for the spread of the virus among the US population.
According to their forecasts, in the period from several months to more than a year, from 160 to 214 million people in the United States can become infected with coronavirus. Hospitalization may require from 2.4 to 21 million people, which may undermine the national health care system, since, according to the publication, there are only 925 thousand equipped hospital beds in the United States. And only about 10% of them are intended for critically ill patients. At the same time, from 200 thousand to 1.7 million US residents can die from the disease.
The publication emphasizes that these forecasts do not take into account measures that are currently being taken to slow the spread of coronavirus. They were considered valid until February 28, but according to co-director of the Center for Statistics and Infectious Diseases at the University of Florida Ira Longini, the situation now remains “about the same”.
The World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11 declared the outbreak of the new coronavirus COVID-19 a pandemic. More than 130 thousand people in more than 120 countries have already been infected in the world, most have recovered, but more than 5 thousand have died.