The uncertainty of trade policy, which is caused by the trade war between the US and China, by the beginning of next year could lead to the fact that the world economy will lose about $850 billion.
The Agency was based on an analysis conducted by the US Federal Reserve (fed). The researchers, in particular, analyzed newspaper articles on the subject and found that the uncertainty of trade policy “has risen to a level unprecedented since the 1970s.”
They then assessed the impact that such uncertainty would have on economic activity, as enterprises reduced production and reduced investment. The researchers concluded that globally, its impact will be about 1% of GDP.
Experts estimate that the US GDP is now estimated at $20 trillion and global GDP at about $85 trillion. At the same time, the impact of 1% will lead to a loss in trade in the United States at the level of $200 billion to GDP and $850 billion to world GDP.
A trade war between the US and China erupted in 2018. This happened after US President Donald Trump began imposing import duties on Chinese goods. Beijing answered Washington mirror. The parties have repeatedly negotiated a deal that could end the trade war between the two largest economies, but it has not yet been possible to do so.
From September 1, the new US tariff on Chinese goods for a total of $300 billion entered into force. Tariffs increased by 15%. From October 1, there will be an increase of tariffs up to 30% at other range of products from China $250 billion. Another increase in tariffs on some imported Chinese goods is expected in December of this year. Trump has previously demanded that American companies look for an alternative to manufacturing in China, noting that it can be moved to the United States.