Central Asia will warm by 3-6°C by 2100

A new way of analyzing tree rings helped to reconstruct temperature data in Mongolia from 1269 AD. NS.

Central Asia is one of the fastest warming regions on the planet. Over the past 15 years, summer temperatures there have increased by 1.59 ° C. This is almost three times higher than the world average. Over the past 15 years, the region has suffered from extreme and prolonged drought.

To date, there is only a small amount of long-term climate data on Central Asia that can help predict the future of the region.

The new study on the region’s temperature was led by Nicole Davy, a senior research fellow at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. The authors used the analysis of tree rings, which can be used to learn about the temperature and the nature of precipitation over the past hundred or even a thousand years.

Initially, the authors studied the cores of tree rings that were collected in 1998 and 2005. And to get more information, they used a new way of analyzing trees. In a new method, scientists determine how well each ring reflects blue light. The denser the wood, the less it absorbs the blue color and, accordingly, the tree grew in colder conditions.

Based on this data, the team built a model of summer temperatures for the region from 1269 to 2004. New data confirms that summer temperatures have been the warmest in the region in 800 years since the 1990s.

New forecasts predict the Central Asia region will warm by 3-6 ° C from the end of 2100. The sharp rise in temperatures is already damaging fragile ecosystems and causing massive losses of livestock, which have historically been the backbone of Mongolia’s economy.

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Alexandr Ivanov earned his Licentiate Engineer in Systems and Computer Engineering from the Free International University of Moldova. Since 2013, Alexandr has been working as a freelance web programmer.
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Alexandr Ivanov

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